Russia-Ukraine Crisis, litmus test for the “rules-based” global order
For the last 5 years, I have been following and studying the geopolitics of the modern world. I guess when one travels a lot like me — one will wonder why are things are as it is now. When I was in Uganda, I got a big surprised to see more Chinese workers than Ugandan workers working in large infrastructure projects in Kampala. I began to wonder why. Or back when I was in northern Laos where I saw more signs in Chinese than Lao language. I have seen same realities in some parts of Timor Leste and Myanmar.
I have dug deeper into geopolitical issues in Asia — the geopolitics of Chinese expansionism of its BRI which includes its massive claim of dominance in the south China sea, to control access and connectivity of the south China sea and the Indian ocean through its massive networks of roads and sea and air ports in Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan and Myanmar. If NATO dominates the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean by the US and its allies — China wants the south China sea and the Indian Ocean. To counter this direction of China for dominance in the region — the QUAD was initiated by the US, India, Japan and Australia. I had a chance to visit China twice and I had spoken to some Chinese scholars and academics and its interesting to learn what drives the current Chinese regime to this expansionism.
The European geopolitics for years has been largely shaped by post-USSR Russia which has seen a significant reduction of its territories and influence when the former SSRs in the eastern European front have gained independence and has aligned with the western alliances of NATO and the EU. Former SSR states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all have become NATO members. Ukraine and Georgia all wanting to join NATO as well. The dissolution of the USSR also reverberated in other countries which led to the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia into smaller independent states that borne a costly price of deaths and immense human suffering.
For Russia, a future where Ukraine becomes a NATO member is a huge security threat for Russia, it’s like NATO is knocking on the Kremlin’s door already. Kyiv the capital of Ukraine is just 800 kilometers from Moscow. Russia for years have worked to maintain its influence in the eastern front. It has managed to keep Belarus on its side. Russia has struggled to keep Ukraine in tow. Russia thought that by taking Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 will send a signal to Kyiv to stay loyal to Russia or risk being invaded. Russia has supported pro-Russian separatist groups in the eastern regions of the country to draw Ukraine into a long drawn internal conflict.
What is Putin’s endgame in this conflict? A less bloody endgame will be a political solution. Russia will work towards overthrowing the current civilian government in Kyiv (taking out key civilian officials or sending key officials to exile) and install a “puppet regime” led by the pro-Russian separatist groups Russia has been supporting for years. Ukraine remains to be a sovereign state but under Russian influence. While this may seem to be a quick political solution to the conflict — it will be marred with un-ending protests and armed resistance by freedom loving Ukrainians. A Russian-controlled Ukraine will have a difficult time to convince the West of its legitimacy which will make it harder for keeping the economy running specially in a post-pandemic world. This is the same situation with Belarus.
A bloodier endgame will be military solution — total all-out war with the Ukrainian forces. This will be a long drawn war as it might lead to civilian-led guerilla urban warfare by freedom-loving Ukrainians. History will tell Putin that an all-out war with a long drawn urban warfare (like when the Nazis were in Stalingrad in WW2, or the US forces in Iraq or in Afghanistan) — will be very costly, more deaths, more money and will lead to low political support of the war among Russian citizens. In the event Putin will succeed in defeating totally the Ukrainian forces — Russia will take back Ukraine as a Russian federal subject, part of the Federation of Russia. No more sovereign state of Ukraine.
No one knows the mind of Putin — is he a moderate and will aim for a political solution or a hardline Russian who will aim to eliminate the country of Ukraine and add more territories for Russia?
Whatever direction Putin will take in this conflict — one thing for sure is that Russia will become a pariah state of the world, cut-off from the global economy. Russia will be joining the ranks of North Korea and Iran. It will lead to severe economic and humanitarian crises in the region, impacting millions of civilians both Russians and Ukrainians. When the Russian economy goes down — the risk of famine and hunger is high. There will be refugees escaping the conflict spilling into the European countries, poverty will increase, hunger and disease are all the indirect impacts of an unstable region in addition to war crimes and other atrocities.
While Russia and Ukraine are far from Asia, this event is important because it is a direct challenge to a “rules-based” international order setup after World War 2. One of those systems in place that has been challenge for years now for its effectiveness to maintaining peace and security is the UN Security Council, composed of the “victors” of WW2 who have the power to veto UN action. The biggest issue is what if the nation charged of keeping world peace initiates war? How are they held accountable? The US has done so in the middle east, invading Iraq and Afghanistan and now Russia in Ukraine. China has also used its veto power to shield itself from accountability for the territories it has taken in Tibet and its tacit support for belligerent nations such as North Korea. The world is getting tired of the several failures of this rules-based system setup by the UN in preventing conflicts and human suffering. Prior to Ukraine, in the very recent there was the Tigray in Ethiopia and atrocious human rights abuses of the junta in Myanmar — all have not been acted effectively by the UN system. Now it’s being tested again.
If this rules-based global order collapses then it will be free for all again for nations — powerful nations take territories from less powerful nations by force. China has already started to ignore rules-based regime in its maritime claims in the Indo-Pacific by ignoring UNCLOS rules, including territorial claims of China over Taiwan. If the world just forget about Putin’s action, what will stop China from acting on its claim — invading and taking more territories than what it has taken already? Smaller less powerful nations will be forced to enter into concessions (give up territories or sign lopsided economic relationship) or risk being invaded and annihilated by powerful nations. In can also lead to an arms race at a global scale as smaller nations scramble to build up its defenses, taking out resources to address development challenges (more bullets than buying rice) and its going to make regions a ticking time bomb for another World War. While imperfect right now, a rules-based global order is still our best chance to a future world of peace and prosperity. This is why its important that the world needs to show its solidarity for supporting all peaceful means based on rules to stop Russian aggression in Ukraine.
In the Philippines, my home — will the current foreign independent policy of the Philippine government which is “friends to all, loyal to no one” approach shield the country from the current race for dominance in the Indo-Pacific region?
